Hurricane Season Starts Today! 2010 Seasonal Outlook
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Hurricane Ike
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
- High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
Hurricane Noel, 2007.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”
The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
I have never lived in south florida before oct 2009 and have never encountered a hurricane. I know today is the 1st day of the season, but i am curious to know when hurricanes usually actually occur? I rec’d a not on hurricane preparedness from the rental office which actually scared me to death and makes me want to get out of here already, lol…but i need to know when hurricanes are at their peak and usually occur. Seems my rental office takes NO responsibility in providing shutters or any help. I live in Miramar 33025. Can anyone advise me as i am truly ignorant when it comes to this matter.
Today is the first day of the season, but for most of us in Florida, we don’t generally start seeing storms until August. I am the publisher of this website, and a native of Fort Lauderdale. I’ve been through a number of hurricanes, and most of them are just a lot of wind and rain and a lot of hassle more than anything else. If you live in Miramar, you usually won’t get the brunt of a storm because most of them come in on the east coast, though the majority of rental places will not provide shutters. You can always purchase plywood to place on your windows (taping really doesn’t work) to protect your home. I also recommend purchasing a renter’s insurance policy to cover any loss of your stuff -they cost around $250-300 a year for the policy for around $30,000 of coverage, which should be enough if you’re renting since you don’t cover the property damage, just damage to the stuff in your house. The key is preparedness – having the necessary supplies, though plenty of wine/beer on hand is great too – most of us natives see hurricanes as an excuse to get off work/school and party while we wait it out. I recommend making sure you have plenty of batteries/flashlights, a weather radio, a fuel can on hand at all times. This is a good list of supplies to have: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/supply_kit.shtml though I wouldn’t get most of it unless a storm is here – I don’t eat a lot of canned food until a hurricane. You can also get a good Honda generator for under $1,000 that’s small, quiet and easy to lift if that’s what you want. Candles or tap lights are good too and can be gotten ahead of time at the dollar store. Honestly, the majority of media here hype fear into people over storms that will never even come your way, so you likely won’t see much coverage on here unless it’s actually coming your way. I too get tired of 24/7 coverage of the hurricane, though I know people need reminders. Most of the time it’s a really bad storm that causes power outtages and lots of debris and roof damages. The Andrews and Katrinas are generally anomalies. We also have a list of resources here for more information: http://browardnetonline.com/hurricane-resources/ If you keep watching your news site, you will know when a storm is heading your way and what to do to prepare.